Economics Professor Matt Roskruge says the war in Ukraine and the escalating conflict in Palestine and Israel as well as the sabre rattling between world superpowers won’t necessarily mean the economic fortunes for Aotearoa will change with the incoming government.
“There are so many big geopolitical and climate change things that are going on that we have so little control over. National will be able to make some changes around the edges, a little bit of tax relief in people’s pockets, and maybe a little bit more business-friendly, so companies might feel a little bit more confident.
“But that pain at the pump and pain at the grocery stores is going to be around for a while, I think.”
Roskruge (Te Āti Awa, Ngāti Tama), is a director at Te Au Rangahau at Massey University. He says Māori made many gains under Labour, in a socio-political sense but says Māori business leaders and iwi may need to step in to help plug any gaps that could appear under a government that appears to be wanting to favour businesses.
“Those are the rules that we’re going to be playing by for at least the next three years. How do we leverage that to get the most benefit for our Māori businesses, and how do we share those gains back with our people?
“There’s no point having really rich iwi entities if our people are still doing it tough, out of employment, out of meaningful work and unable to afford their rent or groceries.”
Inflation slowing down but not fast enough
His comments on Te Ao News coincide with the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, which reflect the rate of inflation. Those figures show the annual rate of inflation continued to slow, up by 5.6% compared to a 6% increase in the 12 months to June.
“Prices are still increasing, but are increasing at rates lower than we have seen in the previous few quarters,” Nicola Growden, Stats NZ consumers prices senior manager said.
Food was the largest contributor to the September 2023 quarter annual inflation rate. This was due to rising prices for ready-to-eat food; milk, cheese, and eggs; and bread and cereals.
Ready-to-eat food prices increased 9.4 % in the 12 months to the September 2023 quarter, while milk, cheese, and eggs; and bread and cereals increased 11.5 % and 11.8 % respectively.
The next largest contributor to the annual increase was housing and household utilities due to rising prices for construction and rents.
Transport was the next largest contributor, driven by rising prices for petrol and domestic air transport.
Maori may have to full the gaps
“Petrol prices increased 41c in the September 2023 quarter, partly due to the end of the 25c a litre tax relief,” Growden said.
Roskruge says while the incoming government has taken aim at many of the socio-political gains made in recent years such as the implementation of co-governance models, people and whānau are also going to feel the pinch of the new policies.
“Because this government is not going to put the same support in place for people on benefits, or for people who are struggling to find work, or people who are struggling to feed their whānau.
“I don’t think it should be the role of Māori to pick up on those gaps but we might have to be because the government’s probably not going to be there in the same way that it has been.
“And it hasn’t really been near the last six years in the same way that we might like anyway, you know, it hasn’t been all roses, and it’s going to be even less of those now.”
