Labour’s Rino Tirikatene seems likely to hold on to his enormous Te Tai Tonga electorate in next month’s general election.
In an exclusive Whakaata Māori poll of 500 voters in the electorate held last week, Tirikatene on 36% had an 11-point lead on Te Pāti Māori’s Tākuta Ferris at 25% but, with 18% undecided, the result may be close.
The poll was released during a Whakaata Māori debate between the two leading candidates earlier tonight.
Female voters favoured Tirikatene (47%) but men were fairly evenly split between the two candidates. Tirikatene rated highest with older people and Ferris with younger people
Two other candidates, Geoffrey Karena Fuimaono Puhi, an independent, and Rebecca Robin, from the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party, barely rated at 4%.
Tirikatene is the latest scion of a three-generation dynasty holding the Te Tai Tonga seat, which is the largest geographic electorate in the country covering Te Waipounamu, Rakiura and Rēkohu, plus part of Pōneke.
He has increased his share of the vote at every election for the past 12 years. Ferris stood for the electorate in 2020 for the first time winning 26.2% compared to Tirikatene’s 50%.
Labour is well ahead on 31% as the preferred party in the great southern electorate, with Te Pāti Māori at 18%, Greens 14%, National 9% and 12% undecided.
The preferred party result is also the best showing for the Greens in the three Māori seats polled to date.
Labour does best in Te Tai Tonga with older voters (44% over 60 years and 40% of 40 to 59-year-olds) and Te Pāti Māori with younger respondents, though with lower support at 22% for 18 to 39-year-olds.
More women than men choose Labour (36% to 24%) and more men favour the Greens (15%), Te Pāti Māori 13% National 12%, and ACT 10% than women.
Some 45% of respondents thought they would be better off under a Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori government, but 22% thought there would be no difference and 24% thought they would be worse off.
If Labour were able to form a government, voters rated potential partners as Te Pāti Māori at 50% and Greens at 48%, with NZ First at 15%
The third Māori electorate to completely reject ACT had 96% opposed to it as a partner.
By age groups the younger voters favoured the Greens most and the voters over 60 ranked Te Pāti Māori first.
If Te Pāti Māori held the balance of power, the Te Tai Tonga voters preferred they support Labour (63%) well ahead of National on 18%.
The respondents thought they would be worse off under a National-Act government (59%), with 18% saying better off and 11% unsure.
The voters may have been hankering after the days when Te Pāti Māori worked with a National government because, when asked if National were to form the next government, which coalition partner they preferred, 33% chose Te Pāti Māori, 26% chose Greens, 22% chose ACT and 14% chose NZ First.
Cost of living was the overwhelming issue among poll respondents at 34% followed by health at 11% and the economy at 9%. The cost of living concerned women more at 40% than men at 26%. Both equally rated health and the economy but environment and taxes were ranked higher by men as an issue.
The top contenders for preferred prime minister were Labour leader Chris Hipkins at 30%, followed by National leader Christopher Luxon at 10%, NZ First leader Winston Peters 7%, Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi 6% and Greens co-leader Marama Davidson at 4%. But 31% were still unsure.
In total 74% said they would definitely vote and 17% said they were likely to vote.
More Whakaata Māori debates and election coverage to come:
DEBATE #4 – HAURAKI-WAIKATO – 7PM, TUES OCTOBER 03
DEBATE #5 - TE TAI TOKERAU - 7PM, THURS OCTOBER 05
DEBATE #6 - WAIARIKI – 7PM, MON, OCTOBER 9
DEBATE #7 - TĀMAKI MAKAURAU – 7PM, TUES OCTOBER 10
ELECTION NIGHT LIVE – 7PM ONWARDS, SATURDAY OCTOBER 14
POST ELECTION HIGHLIGHTS – 11AM, SUNDAY, OCTOBER 15