The proportion of people identifying with Māori ethnicity is projected to grow in all 16 regions between 2018 and 2043, Stats NZ says.
In 2018, the Māori population was 17% of New Zealand’s population, ranging from 54% of Gisborne’s population down to 9% in Tasman and Otago. That share is projected to increase to 21 percent nationally by 2043, ranging from 69 percent in Gisborne down to 12 percent in Tasman and Otago.
“The Māori population has relatively high proportions of tamariki and rangatahi, and a lower proportion of kaumātua,” population estimates and projections manager Hamish Slack said.
“These differences in age structure, combined with higher birth rates, result in faster-projected growth for the Māori population compared with the total population overall.”
These insights are from the latest Subnational ethnic population projections: 2018(base)–2043. These projections give an indication of the future size and age-sex composition of four broad and overlapping ethnic groups – Māori, Pacific, Asian, and ‘European or Other’ – living in all areas of New Zealand. The projections help ethnic and local communities understand and plan for future population changes.