A serious coup will be needed to unseat Labour’s Kelvin Davis in Te Tai Tokerau according to the latest poll.
Māori Television’s final poll of the Māori seats has Davis well ahead with more than double the support of the Mana Movement’s, Hone Harawira.
In the Māori seat of Te Tai Tokerau, Davis is holding court with 67.4% support as the preferred candidate. Harawira takes most of the remaining share at 30.3%, leaving the Green’s Godfrey Rudolph well outside the kingdom on 2.3%.
Davis says, "I'm happy that I'm ahead but the concern is that people will think it's a waste of time even voting for me because it's in the bag."
Harawira won three elections and one by-election in Te Tai Tokerau. His reign ended in the last election after joining German millionaire Kim Dotcom and losing his seat to Kelvin Davis. Harawira ditched Dotcom and made up with the Māori Party who agreed not to stand a candidate in the northern seat against him.
But the Corrections portfolio and momentum of becoming Deputy Leader of a party on the rise has delivered high visibility and support for Davis across all age groups as preferred candidate.
Davis has 62.5% support among those aged 18-24; 65.9% among 45-54 and 70.6% for 65+.
Harawira scored 37.5% among 18-24; 31.8% for 45-54 and 26.5% for 65+.
In the Party Vote, Labour is building a formidable stronghold with 49.7% support as the preferred party. The Greens are at 10.3% with Mana on 6.1%.
The Te Tai Tokerau poll was conducted by Reid Research from July 11 to September 5 with 400 enrolled voters and a margin of era of 4.89%.